Itauma v Hrgovic: Barry Jones on why the young southpaw is a live favourite at a very short price

This is the fight that decides whether the hype around Moses Itauma is real. He goes into the O2 unbeaten at 14 and 0 with 12 knockouts, and he has barely had to show us a second gear. The Jermaine Franklin win was the clearest signal yet. Franklin had gone the distance with Dillian Whyte and Anthony Joshua and had never been stopped, then Itauma took him out early with clean, straight punching from the southpaw stance. That was not a puncher swinging for the fences, that was a fighter who found the angle and finished.

Filip Hrgovic is a different problem. He is 34, he is 20 and 1, he was an Olympic bronze medallist and he has been in with proper heavyweights: Zhilei Zhang, Joe Joyce, Demsey McKean, Tony Yoka. He also carries the one loss, the stoppage by Daniel Dubois in Riyadh, and that fight tells you both what he can and cannot do. He was competitive and he was busy, then his defence in front of a big right hand let him down when the fight got heavy. Since then he has answered with a solid win over Joyce, which was as much about proving he could still be trusted in a title eliminator as it was about the performance itself.

The style match up is where I keep landing. Hrgovic wants a long fight with a high work rate, a stiff jab and heavy body shots to take the legs off a younger man. He is comfortable at range, he is happy to lean on you, and he is far better inside than people give him credit for. If Itauma lets him settle into that rhythm, this becomes a scrappy, physical night where experience matters. Hrgovic has 12 rounds in the tank and he has already gone into deep water against Zhang.

Itauma has not, and that is the honest question mark. Nobody has taken him past round four in any meaningful way, so we are guessing about his engine, his chin under sustained pressure and his composure if the first plan does not work. Guessing is exactly why 1/8 is a hard price to back with real money. It is not a wrong price, it is just a price with no margin in it. A punter is being asked to accept that an untested 21 year old solves a top ten heavyweight without any resistance.

What tilts it towards Itauma for me is speed and southpaw geometry. Hrgovic has always been beatable to the straight left because he squares up when he sets his feet to throw the right hand, and Itauma is quicker than anyone he has shared a ring with. Youth also matters in the other direction. Hrgovic has had hard fights, he took a genuine beating from Dubois, and heavyweights rarely get their durability back once it starts to go.

The most likely shape of the night is a cautious first round, Hrgovic trying to bully behind the jab, then Itauma finding the left hand as soon as his opponent commits. If it lands cleanly inside four rounds this looks like another highlight. If Hrgovic can survive an early scare and drag him into rounds seven and beyond, the fight becomes genuinely interesting and the price on the underdog starts to look generous.

For a betting angle I have no interest in the outright at 1/8. The value is in the round bands and the method. Itauma by knockout inside four is the bet that matches the way I expect the fight to break, and Hrgovic to hear the final bell is the sensible hedge for anyone who thinks the young man is being asked to grow up too quickly on a big night.